This site tracks how many private jets are in the air right now and compares that number to what's historically normal for this time of day and day of week. When the count rises significantly above baseline, the emergency level goes up.

The premise is that wealthy and well-connected people tend to learn about crises before the rest of us do — and private jets are how they move when they need to move fast. If something serious is about to unfold, the people who know about it would start moving. This site is an attempt to detect that signal.

It's not a reliable predictor. A level 5 can be triggered by holiday travel or a major sporting event. But the largest spike ever recorded on this site coincided with Iran's April 2024 counterattack on U.S. and Israeli targets — which is at least suggestive.

We compare the current count of tracked business jets to a rolling baseline average for the same general time window. As the ratio of observed to expected rises, the level rises. Level 5 is calibrated so that only the single highest daily peak in a typical year should exceed it.

The baseline is calculated from readings stored in your browser. It becomes more accurate over time, so the level is less reliable during the first few hours on a new device.

Twenty-four ICAO aircraft type codes covering the major business jet families: Gulfstream G-IV through G-700, Bombardier Global Express and Challenger series, Dassault Falcon 7X / 8X / 900, Cessna Citation series, Embraer Phenom and Legacy, Learjet, Hawker, Beechjet, and Pilatus PC-24.

Every 5 minutes. Data comes from the community-run ADS-B receiver network at adsb.lol.

Reasonably, with caveats. ADS-B coverage is excellent over North America and Europe but sparser in other regions. A small number of jets operate without broadcasting. The level is also sensitive to legitimate travel spikes — major conferences, holidays, and large sporting events can all push it up without any geopolitical significance.

This is a signal, not a certainty. Treat it accordingly.

The original Apocalypse Early Warning System was built by Kyle McDonald. This is a rebuilt version inspired by his work.